IBM Research

Deep Thunder Forecast for New York Current Deep Thunder Forecast for New York Products for Consolidated Edison Operations Storm Classification at 4 km between Data Points Description This page contains an animation that is a visualization of the Deep Thunder forecast focused on Bronx and Westchester Counties.   It uses data from the intermediate nest at 4 km resolution.   Each time step corresponds to thirty minutes of forecast time.   The specific data and representation shown are for potential use for ConEd operations and planning.   In this case, there are maps of a forecasted storm classification scheme as color contour bands, following the legend at the lower right.   The map is accompanied by a number of overlays, including coastlines and state boundaries in black, county boundaries in dark gray and ConEd feeder cell boundaries in light gray, and cities or other locations in black.   Instructions The animation on this page is composed of a set of individual JPEG images with one hour of forecast time between each frame.   Depending on your connection speed and that of your computer, the animation may take a few minutes to load and decompress in your browser.   When it is completed, the animation will play.   There are VCR-like controls under the animation to enable you to stop playback, play forward or backward, or step through the frames one at a time, control the speed of playback, etc.   If you are having problems viewing or interacting with this animation, make sure your browser has Javascript enabled. If the forecast information presented on this page does not seem to be current and you have visited this site recently, the results of the previous visit may have been saved in your web browser's cache. If so, you should change your cache settings (e.g., File->Preferences->Advanced->Cache in Netscape and set the document comparison to "Every time"). When you restart your browser, the problem should be solved. For your current session, you should manually clear the cache and reload the page.   The storm classification is based upon historical criteria that ConEd has defined for this portion of their service area as outlined in the table below.   Currently, this visualization of the forecasted storm classification is using storm intensity (winds and liquid precipitation) as criteria.  Predictions of storm duration, gusts and snow will be considered in later versions.    Storm Category and Plan PSC Category Typical Weather Conditions (One or More) Projected Number of Customers Out of Service Estimated Restoration Time 1 - Upgraded (Bronx Westchester Resources) 1 Thunderstorms, rain and moving fronts Sustained winds of 25-30 mph Frequent gusts of 35 mph+ Condition is short to mid-term Up to 6" of heavy, wet snow Up to 7000 8-12 hours 2A - Serious (Other ConEd Resources) 2 Heavy thunderstorms, rain Sustained winds up to 30 mph Frequent gusts of 40 mph+ Up to 12" of heavy, wet snow Up to 9000 12-16 hours 2B - Serious 2 Heavy thunderstorms, rain Sustained winds up to 35 mph Frequent gusts of 45 mph+ Up to 12" of heavy, wet snow Up to 12000 12-16 hours 2C - Serious 2 Heavy thunderstorms, rain Sustained winds up to 40 mph Frequent gusts of 50 mph+ Up to 12" of heavy, wet snow Up to 15000 12-20 hours 3A - Full Scale (Non-ConEd Resources) 3 Severe thunderstorms, tropical storms, nor'easter, heavy rain Sustained winds up to 40-45 mph Frequent gusts of 60 mph+ Over 15" of heavy, wet snow Up to 40000 1-2 Days 3B - Full Scale 3 Tropical storms, including Category 1 and 2 hurricanes Conditions exist for 6-12 hours or longer Over 40000 2 Days to 1 week, depending on the number of customers affected More Visualizations of the Current Forecast   Learn More about These Forecasts   Recent High-Resolution Local Satellite Observations   Learn More about Deep Thunder   Learn More about how Deep Thunder Visualizes the Data Generated by the Weather Model   Current Weather Information and Predictions for New York City (from the National Weather Service)   Current Model Results from the National Weather Service   Recent High-Resolution Local Radar Observations   Evaluation of Recent Forecasts